Fall is a damn fine season to hunt surf. For many spots around the globe, it’s the most consistent time of year to score — in the Northern Hemisphere, it’s when the transition from a placid summer to a stormy winter begins, while the South Hemisphere remains active and the tropics flare. And heading into the heart of fall, we’re seeing plenty of promise for California and Hawaii as a series of swells from nearly every direction on the compass looks to round out September, and carry us into October.
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Why does the fall produce such good surf (often the best of the year) for California? Three, it’s the magic number. Three different zones in the Pacific basin can send waves during the fall season, sometimes simultaneously: the South Pacific, the North Pacific and the East Pacific tropics. More options for swell should afford more opportunities to get in the water — and during the fall, waves are often of higher quality than at other times of the year. When swells from different regions arrive at the same time but from different directions, they can cross up, enhancing the surf size, wave shape, and consistency. Think of tapered peaks instead of lined-up closeouts. More swell that can turn into better surf — a few big reasons why fall is the best season.
Cory Colapinto basking in pristine Fall conditions. Photo: Jeremiah Klein.
Breaking down the three swell sources, the South Pacific is still alive and very active. Climatologically, September’s only slightly slower than the peak months of May-June — several of the top-10 largest Southern Hemisphere swells of the past 20 years occurred in September. We won’t see anything close to the top-10 realm this year but thanks to persistent storm activity, we do have a nice looking run of SW/SSW swell that’s on track to close out the month.
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Though we’re a little past peak, it’s still prime time for the East Pacific tropics. They’re most active from late August through early October — and the storms this time of year tend to take a more northerly track that’s favorable for California swell production. Our tropics have been a snooze fest this year while the Atlantic cooks (thanks largely to La Nina), but small Tropical Storm Lowell to the west of Cabo San Lucas should provide some rideable surf to the best southerly swell spots over the next few days. The long range charts point to more tropical activity near Baja in early October, and that could send additional surf to SoCal.
Fall fashion in the North Pacific – low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and a tropical storm off of Baja.
The North Pacific is the final piece of the fall swell triad. After slumbering all summer, storms are most frequently found in the higher latitudes (near the Gulf of Alaska) during the early stages of the North Pacific swell season. These more northerly angled swells are generally favorable for Hawaii and Northern/Central California, but the direction limits the amount of swell that’s able to wrap into Southern California. And right on a fall cue, the most significant storm since spring is setting up deep in the Gulf of Alaska. Satellites verified 30-40-knot wind and seas approaching 30 feet that’ll send a strong, opening season NNW/NW swell to Hawaii and Northern California the second half of the week. And for SoCal, a bit of energy should get around the corner of Point Conception.
The other, and maybe the most important, factor that leads to great fall surf is the conditions. Surf aside, California’s wind and weather is often ‘Good to Epic’ during the period when all of these swells come rolling in.
With all of the recent or current storm activity, we’ve poured over the data to nail down the best days for surf in your area — check your Regional Forecast and the Best Bet highlights below and start planning now to get the most out this run of Fall surf.
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